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Turkey’s Election: Issues, Actors and Outcomes
By Rishika Yadav

Turkey’s Elections: A brief background since 2002
On 03 November 2002, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), a conservative party led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, won the general election and emerged as a successor to previous Islamist parties that were barred from running for parliament. He became prime minister in March 2003, and it is the first single-party government since 1987 and the first two-party parliament since 1961. 

On 28 August 2014, Erdogan became the 12th President of Turkey and appointed his former foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, as the new prime minister.
 
On 24 June 2018, Turkey became a presidential system of government from a parliamentary one, following the proposed constitutional referendum by AKP and MHP in 2017. The referendum granted more power to the president and eliminated the prime minister's role. The alterations took effect after the next election. 

On 20 March, 2021, Turkey withdrew from the Istanbul Convention in March, triggering protests from women's rights advocates and condemnation from the UN and other nations. 

On 14 May 2023, Turkey is about to foresee the crucial and highly competitive general and presidential elections. Erdogan, representing the AKP-Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) coalition, competes against his primary rival Kilicdaroglu of the Nation Alliance, featuring the IYI, SP, and DEVA parties. Overseas voting began on 27 April, and on 10 May, ballots were flown back to Turkey. Turks in Germany turned out in record high numbers to vote.

May 2023 Elections: Major issues
1. Erdogan’s rating
According to MetroPoll's "The Pulse of Turkey" survey, President Erdogan's approval rating continued to decline in July despite efforts to improve his popularity. Erdogan's disapproval rating rose to 53.7 per cent, while his approval rating fell to 41.5 per cent, 2.7 per cent less than June.  

2. Outrage amongst the Women
The withdrawal of Turkey from the Istanbul Convention has provoked outrage among women's rights groups and sparked a gender debate in the elections. Only 17.4 per cent of the candidates for parliament are women, and the Halkların Demokratik Partisi (HDP) is the only party with a female presidential candidate. The AKP's campaign highlights traditional gender roles and family values, while the opposition advocates for women's rights and challenges Erdogan's decision on the Istanbul Convention. 

3. The Economic Crisis
Turkey experiences a deepening economic crisis following the Covid pandemic in 2020, with inflation at its highest level since 2002, reaching 36 per cent in December. Despite the central bank's interest rate hikes, the Turkish lira's value against the US dollar drops by over 40 per cent. 

4. Fallouts of the earthquake
The February earthquake in Turkey has impacted the elections. It has exposed the government's inability to implement safety regulations and emergency planning, resulting in fatalities and criticisms directed towards President Erdogan's party. The electoral process was also disrupted, with calls to postpone the elections due to damaged polling stations and campaign activities being limited. The earthquake has also shifted public attention, with people more concerned about survival and recovery than their political preferences, potentially affecting voting behavior.

5. Opposition to Erdogan
On 11 May, Homeland Party’s presidential candidate, Muharrem Ince, withdrew his candidacy. The withdrawal of Ince is advantageous for the National Alliance coalition under Kemal Kilicdaroglu as it could help him win in the first round. According to Metropoll, 49 per cent of Ince’s support will shift towards Kilicdaroglu while 22 per cent will shift towards Erdogan.

On the same lines, AKP’s alliance with the Islamist New Welfare Party and the Kurdish HUDA-PAR (an extension of Kurdish Hizbullah) jeopardizes his win. Erdogan also faces nationalist allies' pressure for a more hardline stance against the Kurdish issue and military intervention in regional conflicts such as Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Eastern Mediterranean.

What will be the outcome?
The outcome of Turkey’s 2023 election will determine Turkey's leadership, governance, economy, and global role, with Erdogan facing the toughest challenge, as young voters hold his fate. Parties such as HUDA-PAR, known for criminal activities, demanded the criminalization of adultery, restrictions on women's mobility, and changing the eligibility age for marriage. 

Within the party, female candidates such as Ozlem Zengin say that these demands have crossed the red line. Erdogan faces growing discontent and criticism from the opposition, the business sector, and the public over his economic policies and his handling of the pandemic. Erdogan's decline in popularity comes amid his threat to block Sweden and Finland's applications to join NATO. 

IN BRIEF
by Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS

DENMARK
Denmark-Greenland relations take a deteriorating turn
On 12 May, Denmark-Greenland relations deteriorated as a Greenlandic MP refused to speak in Danish during a debate in the Danish parliament. Instead, she used Inuit, her native language, frustrating the Danish lawmakers. Relations started declining because of the untoward approach of Denmark towards Greenland and its people, especially in the 1960s and 1970s. In 2009, the island was granted self-governing autonomy, including the right to declare independence. Further, Greenland's government presented its first draft constitution to its parliament in early May 2023. (Nikolaj Skydsgaard and Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen, " Awkward moment in Denmark's parliament as Greenlandic MP refuses to speak Danish," Reuters, 12 May 2023)

GERMANY
Targeted attack near Dusseldorf
On 11 May, in Ratingen, while on a regular patrol police were attacked by a 57-year-old suspect with a burning liquid made of petrol. Police arrived to check on a woman who hadn't emptied her post box. The suspect threw a container full of that liquid after setting it ablaze on the police and the firefighters. An older woman’s body, likely dead a week ago, was found. The intentions of the suspect are still unclear. (“Germany: Apartment blast near Dusseldorf ‘targeted attack’,” Deutsche Welle, 12 May 2023)

PORTUGAL
Parliament legalises euthanasia
On 12 May, Portugal legalized euthanasia for nationals and legal residents over the age of 18 who have incurable diseases and undergo lasting and unbearable pain. The Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa opposed the euthanasia bill four times and sent it back for constitutional review. He vetoed the bill as the definition of terminal condition was unclear. The new version authorizes euthanasia when medically assisted suicide is impossible. The president has a week to promulgate the law. (“Portuguese parliament legalises euthanasia after long battle,” The Guardian, 12 May 2023)

RUSSIA
Black Sea Fleet tightens its defence at Sevastopol
On May 12, in an interview with Reuters, the Russian commander said that the Black Sea Fleet has been tightening its defences at Sevastopol in Crimea against the Ukrainian drone attacks since February 2022. (Kevin Liffey, “Russia's Black Sea Fleet beefs up defences amid drone strikes -commander,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)

Russia denies meddling in Turkey’s elections
On 13 May, BBC News reported that Russian Spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied Russia’s interference in Turkey’s presidential elections. According to BBC News, Turkey’s opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu commented earlier that the Turkish government colluded with foreign hackers paid in Bitcoins. Kilicdaroglu in a tweet accused Russia of releasing fake content in Turkey. Peskov added that Russia values its relationship with Turkey and that Ankara’s foreign policy decisions have been responsible. Kilicdaroglu in an interview with BBC News told that if he wins he will establish closer relations with the West rather than Russia. (Laura Gozzi, “Turkey election: Kremlin rejects accusations of interference,” BBC News, 13 May 2023)

SERBIA
Protests against gun violence
On 12 May, in Belgrade, thousands of people marched through a bridge spanning the Sava River against gun violence. This is the second protest following the mass shooting on 03 and 04 May where 17 people died. Serbian President Aleksander Vucic accused the protesters of harassing fellow citizens by disrupting their movement. He added that no police will be involved unless there is violence. Protesters blamed the president for the division in the country which led to the mass shootings. (“Tens of thousands march in Belgrade after mass shootings,” The Guardian, 12 May 2023)

SPAIN
Police arrest 69 over bot scam targeted at asylum seekers
On 12 May, the Spanish police arrested 69 scammers from a criminal gang that hacked an online booking system for reselling free police appointments to asylum seekers and refugees in the country. According to the police, the gang has thus amassed about EUR 200 per appointment. In the raids, the police confiscated documents and found EUR 200,000 in cash. (Charlie Devereux, “Spanish police arrest 69 over bot scheme cashing in on asylum seekers,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)

Brazilian boat seized for smuggling cocaine
On May 12, Spanish police seized a Brazilian fishing boat smuggling cocaine across the Atlantic to the Spanish islands off the northwestern coast of Africa. The police have arrested the crew of six people, including five Brazilians and a Venezuelan national. (Borja Suarez, “Spain seizes Brazilian fishing boat with cocaine haul on rough seas,” Reuters, 12 May 2023) 

TURKEY
Black Sea grain deal nears extension
On 12 May, according to Reuters, Turkey’s Defence minister Hulusi Akar said that the Black Sea grain pact is nearing an extension. In July 2022, the UN and Turkey brokered the pact with Ukraine and Russia amid a global food crisis. On 11 May, the parties to the pact discussed its extensions, while Russia announced that it would quit the pact on 18 May due to obstacles in its grain and fertilizers exports. (Mert Ozkan, “Turkey says Black Sea grain deal extension nearing,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)

REGIONAL
Russia admits retreat at Bakhmut
On 12 May, Reuters reported Russia’s admittance of a fallback at Bakhmut. According to the spokesman of the east group of Ukrainian forces Serhiy Cherevatyi, 17.3 square kilometers of area have been liberated by them. Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said that the Ukrainian offensive included 1000 troops with 40 ranks. He added that 26 attacks have been repelled by Russia. According to Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Ukrainian assumed higher ground at Bakhmut and the regrouping of Russian forces was a ‘rout.’ Prigozhin said that the Russian troops are collapsing at North and South Bakhmut. (Olena Harmash and Ivan Lyubush-Kirdey, “Russia acknowledges retreat north of Bakhmut, Wagner boss calls is a ‘rout’,” Reuters, 13 May 2023)

IAEA to present an agreement to protect Zaporizhzhia
On 12 May, Reuters reported IAEA chief Rafael Grossi is to present an agreement with Russia and Ukraine to the UNSC to protect the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in May 2023. The Russian and Ukrainian army presence in the area has increased the apprehension of a nuclear catastrophe initiating this agreement. Both countries continue to blame each other for the shelling that obstructs the power lines vital for cooling nuclear reactors. It will include several "principles,” such as no firing from the plant, the barring of heavy weapons, and no military personnel. The ambiguity remains, and the position of both parties and “principles”  are yet to be clarified. (John Irish, Francois Murphy, “Exclusive: IAEA chief aims to present Zaporizhzhia deal to UN this month -diplomats,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
“Together we’re supporting Ukraine,” says Joe Biden
On 13 May, in Washington, US President Joe Biden met with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Biden acknowledged US’s and Spain’s support to Ukraine while Sanchez blamed Russia for the war. Sanchez called the Russian President Vladimir Putin, an aggressor. Biden appreciated Spain’s migration management. (Jeff Mason and Arshad Mohammed, “Biden meets with Spain’s Sanchez, discusses Ukraine war,” Reuters, 13 May 2023)

“Moscow had never refused the diplomatic track,” says Vladimir Putin 
On 12 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin on a call with the South African President Cyril Ramphosa said that Russia has never refused a diplomatic track to end the conflict. Ramphosa offered to involve African leaders in the mediation process. The call was made at South Africa’s request. Putin also affirmed sending grains and fertilizers to South Africa for free. (“Putin,S.Africa’s Ramphosa discussed Ukraine in phone call-Kremlin,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)

EU contemplates scaling back in relations with China
On May 12, EU ministers discussed scaling down its economic dependence on China. They aim to readjust the policy to place China as a political rival and economic competitor while partnering on global issues. Since its unexpected fallout in relations with Russia, the EU is struggling to recalibrate its relations with China. Lithuanian Foreign Minister said that the EU must prepare for the potential deterioration of its relations with China if conflict erupts over Taiwan. Borrell rescinded that the aim is not to de-couple but to rebalance the relationship. (Andrew Gray, “EU ministers back plan to reduce economic reliance on China;" Reuters, 12 May 2023; Sabine Siebold, “Lithuania says EU must prepare for risk of 'de-coupling' from China,” Reuters, 12 May 2023)

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Marita Moloney, “Ukraine war: WFP chief Cindy McCain says grain deal with Russia needed to feed world”
BBC News, 12 May 2023
“Ukraine is a major global exporter of sunflower, maize, wheat and barley, and more than half of the wheat grain procured by the WFP last year came from there. At the same time, the UN also agreed to help Moscow facilitate its own agricultural shipments. "They must renew the deal. We can't possibly be able to feed the region let alone the world unless they do," Ms McCain said.”

Burcu Karakas, “Erdogan’s opponents vow fresh start on Turkish human rights”
Reuters, 12 May 2023
“With Erdogan facing his toughest year yet at the ballot box, rights advocates hope his defeat will draw a line under an era which they say has seen judicial independence eroded, freedom of speech curbed, and journalists and politicians jailed.”

Rachel Marsden, “Western European leaders reach peak dystopia on Victory Day”
RT, 12 May 2023
“Von der Leyen then praised Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky for rebranding May 9 as Europe Day, just like in the European Union where countries mark Victory Day on May 8, the date to which Zelensky also moved Victory Day this year. Suddenly, Victory Day in Ukraine wants to self-identify as Europe Day and it’s a done deal with the simple stroke of a pen.”